WTC Qualification Scenarios- India In Trouble After Loss vs NZ

Race Heats Up For Lord's

The race to make a place in the WTC final is heating up as the series are coming thick and fast one after the other. Significant positions have been changed in the WTC points table after some historic results were recorded in Asia. India, who were in a dominant position after their 2-0 series win over Bangladesh, were left stunned after a series whitewash against New Zealand on home soil(3-0). Elsewhere, the visiting South Africans recorded a famous 2-0 series win against Bangladesh in Bangladesh to make the table look more interesting.

Take a look at the qualification scenarios of the teams after the conclusion of the third and final test at Mumbai

WTC Qualification Scenarios

India

Series left: 5 Tests vs Australia (Away)

India, perhaps were the front-runners to make another appearance at the World Test Championship Final at Lord's next year, until their bogey side New Zealand came in their way. The Men In Blue registered a comfortable series win against Bangladesh earlier before going down against the Kiwis by a 3-0 margin, also ending their proud record of 18 test series wins at home in the process.

For India to qualify now without looking at other results is to beat Australia by a margin of 5-0 or 4-0 can take their percentage to 65% and can only be overtaken by Sri Lanka or South Africa. If India wins the series by a margin of 4-1 then their percentage would be 64.1% and can be overtaken by Sri Lanka, New Zealand & SA if they manage to win their remaining tests. If India goes down in the series by a 3-2 margin to Australia they'll be knocked out.

South Africa

Series left: 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (home); 2 Tests vs Pakistan (home)

South Africa after winning their recent test series in Bangladesh by 2-0 has made their life a bit easier in their race for a qualification for a playoff spot. South Africa has four matches left (All 4 games at home). If they win their remaining four games they'll end up with a PCT of 69% which will be enough for them to make a place in the final. If they win 3 out of their remaining 4 games they'll have a PCT of 61% which will give them a decent chance to enter the final, provided other results go their way.

New Zealand

Series left: 3 Tests vs England (home)

New Zealand's historic series win (3-0) in India has given them another chance to make a claim for themselves for the final at Lord's next year. New Zealand has 3 home tests against England, even if the Kiwis win the series 3-0 their place will still not be guaranteed as Sri Lanka South Africa India, or Australia can still overtake their PCT of 64.3%.

If the series between South Africa & Sri Lanka ends in a draw then these two teams cannot cross New Zealand's PCT of 64.3%, only India or Australia can cross NZ's PCT that'll be enough for the Blackcaps to book a ticket for Lord's. If NZ loses the series against England by 2-0 then their PCT would go below 60% knocking them almost out of the competition.

Australia

Series left: 5 Tests vs India (home); 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (away)

The winners of the previous WTC cycle Australia, currently sit at the top of the table after India's 3-0 loss against New Zealand. Australia has 7 tough tests to play to book a ticket for Lord's next year. For Australia to qualify they would need to win 4-0 against India and then win 2-0 against Sri Lanka to qualify.

Australia could be knocked out if they lose 2-0 to Sri Lanka as New Zealand will get to 64.3% PCT if they beat England in all three tests & Sri Lanka beats South Africa, then SL's PCT would be 69.2% and can easily surpass Australia's PCT of 62.5%

Sri Lanka

Series left: 2 Tests vs South Africa (away); 2 Tests vs Australia (home)

Sri Lanka's wins against England & New Zealand have kept them in the hunt for a place in the finals. Sri Lanka has 4 matches to play if, they win all four games they'll end up with 69.2% PCT, a percentage that can only be surpassed by India if they win the BGT by 5-0. If SL wins 3 out of 4 then they'll PCT would be 61% giving them a decent chance to qualify but they'll need other results to go their way.