WTC Qualification Scenarios: India In Big Trouble After Adelaide Loss

The race for a place in the final of the third cycle of the World Test Championship is heating up as the matches come thick and fast. South Africa has claimed a 2-0 series win against Sri Lanka at home thus, reducing the number of teams who can make it to Lord's next year in June. New Zealand recorded a stunning series win in India (3-0) but, then succumbed to a series loss against England (2-0*) with one match still left to be played. This series loss against England has ended New Zealand's minimal chance too of making it to the WTC Finals.

Currently, India & Australia are involved in a Knockout clash to take on hot favorites South Africa in the finals at Lord's in June. Let's have a look at the points table after South Africa's victory over Sri Lanka (9th December 2024)

WTC Points Table (As of 9th December 2024)

South Africa

The South Africans have made a thundering comeback winning 5 games on the bounce after having just 1 win in their opening 5 games of the cycle. South Africa, currently sits at the top of the table with a great percentage of 63.33%.

For SA To Qualify

1. 1 or 2 wins vs Pakistan

One win against Pakistan is all they need to book their tickets for Lord's while two wins could see them most likely ending as the table toppers.

Can South Africa Still Get Eliminated?
Yes, If SA loses both Tests to Pakistan, they could most likely miss out as both India and Australia can finish above them, even Sri Lanka can finish above South Africa if they beat Australia 2-0. As South Africa has played fewer games as compared to the other sides in contention, the net effect of a win or a loss affects their PCT much more than other sides.

Australia

Australia were temporarily back to the top of the charts after their thumping ten-wicket win in Adelaide but dropped one place down after South Africa's win in Gqeberha.

For Australia To Qualify Directly

2 wins out of the 3 remaining Tests against India should grant them access to the Finals if they win a test against Sri Lanka too.

Win 2 tests out of 3 vs India
1 win vs SL

If BGT ends at 2-2?
If the Border Gavaskar Trophy ends at 2-2 then AUS needs to win 1 test vs Sri Lanka to finish above India & not depend on South Africa's results.

If AUS loses BGT by 3-2?
If Australia loses 2-3 to India, they will need to win both the Tests in Sri Lanka to progress without depending on South Africa's results.

India

The Men in Blue who are finalists in both the editions of previous cycles of WTC, find themselves in a pickle after they shockingly lost the home test series against New Zealand, the recent loss against Australia at Adelaide has not helped their chances either.

For India not to depend on other results, they will need to win at least two and draw the other of their three remaining games in Australia. to give them insurance against a 2-0 win for Australia in Sri Lanka. If India wins the Border Gavaskar trophy by a 2-1 margin, Australia can still finish ahead of them if they beat Sri Lanka 2-0 as can South Africa if they win one more Test.

For India To Qualify Without looking at other results

India win 2 tests & draw 1 test in Australia
Australia- Sri Lanka series ends at 1-1 or 0-0

What If BGT ends at 2-2?

If the BGT ends at 2-2 then India will have to hope that the Australia-Sri Lanka series too ends at 0-0. This would tie the percentages of India & Australia at 55.26%. India, who have won more series in this cycle as compared to their counterparts would edge Australia on that criteria and will play the WTC final.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's chances got a big dent after their series loss against South Africa, however, they can still finish at the top if some results go their way:

For Sri Lanka to Qualify

1. Sri Lanka beat Australia 2-0 and ended on 53.85%.

2. South Africa lost both Tests against Pakistan and finished at 52.78%. Then either India or Australia can match Sri Lanka's percentage of 53.85%.

3. If South Africa gains at least one draw against Pakistan, they will finish above 55%, then the Border Gavaskar trophy ends with a 2-1 win for Australia, and then both Australia (53.51%) and India (51.75%) finish below Sri Lanka's 53.85%.

Sri Lanka will get eliminated if they lose both tests or even one or draw against Australia at home.