WTC Qualification Scenarios- India In Big Trouble After MCG Loss

South Africa has become the first team to make it to the WTC finals after registering a tense 2-wicket win against Pakistan at home. The final will be played in June at the 'Home Of Cricket in Lord's. In total six tests remain in the cycle and three teams have a chance to claim the only spot left namely India, Australia & Sri Lanka. Let's have a look at the qualification scenarios of these teams after the end of 4th test between India & Australia where Australia registered an 184-run win.

Australia

Australia has almost sealed their chance to defend their title at Lord's with the win in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG against India. If they win the fifth test at the SCG, they'll advance to the final with a percentage of 57 which is beyond the reach of India & Sri Lanka to surpass. This also means that they won't have to rely on their 2-tests against Sri Lanka.

If the Sydney test ends in a draw then Australia needs to draw a game in Sri Lanka to qualify. If India wins the SCG test then Australia needs to win at least one game against Sri Lanka to go past India's percentage of 55.26

India

India was comfortably sitting at the top of the table after the end of the series against Bangladesh. Since then, the Men In Blue have had tough times with a shambling series whitewash against New Zealand at home (3-0) they have gone down the table. Things didn't improve in BGT either as they went down by 10 wickets & 184 runs in Adelaide & MCG to further dent their chances & also ensure that for the first time, they don't have their fortunes in their hand. For India to qualify they need to win the 5th test at the SCG to reach 55.26 & hope that Australia doesn't win in Sri Lanka.

If the scoreline against Australia ends 2-2 and both the Tests between Australia and Sri Lanka end in draws, both India and Australia will be tied on 55.26 with India progressing by more series wins (three for India to Australia's two). But if Australia gains more than 8 points in Sri Lanka (Draw gives 8 points) then Australia will finish above India in the points table.

A defeat or a draw in the final Test against Australia will end India's hopes of a third consecutive final appearance.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's chances got a big dent after their series loss in South Africa and a result at SCG will end hopes for Sri Lanka irrespective of the scoreline of their series against Australia in February. The only way Sri Lanka can make it to the Lord's is the SCG test ending in a draw & they win their matches against Australia. This will then take Sri Lanka to 53.85, Australia will end at 53.51 & India will end up getting 51.75.

WTC Points Table